How tropical waves, convection and turbulence govern the global weather forecast and the role of physics and resolution therein.
The role of tropical waves, convection and turbulence in global numerical weather prediction and how model physics and resolution can help
We will first review a few methods of how to analyse large-scale tropical waves (Rossby, Kelvin, Madden-Julian oscillation) and then show examples of how successful predictions of these waves impact tropical and longer-range middle latitude predictions.
Gravity waves are also important, especially gravity waves generated over orography, in the southern hemisphere storm tracks and those generated by convection. A few global examples of gravity waves in the stratosphere will be shown too, together with turbulence measurements and verification of predicted turbulence.
Finally, we move to the difficult problem of representing propagating mesoscale convective system and the diurnal cycle, especially over Africa, where the convection is not coupled to a large-scale wave/frontal system but is creating its own convergence.
Are km-scale global convection permitting models the solution to all problems or is there still a huge amount of work to do? DestinE will eventually show, but here is already our first experience with IFS and the NextGems project.